Conjecturing analysis...

A hoped for longer post will have to wait as we put on our Analysis Hat and look at some local races. Because blogs are the bastion of baseless speculation, let's speculate -- as objectively as we can -- on the outcomes of the local council elections, which, in case you haven't heard, are happening next week. (Don't forget to vote!)

Despite what we'd like to believe, the growing cabal of local blogs probably aren't the best barometer of the feelings and discussions of the general, non-blogging public. Even on our best days, we reach only a tiny percentage of likely voters, and even factoring in the personal connections of our regular readers, most county residents (regrettably) have never heard of yours truly.

Feel free to challenge that assertion -- I'd certainly like to think the Hayduke Sphere of Influence is expansive.

With that in mind -- challenges notwithstanding -- I think most voters interact with local issues and campaigns in a very limited sense. They may read the endorsements of newspapers. They may see a few commercials. They might see some signs on their neighbors' yards. But on the whole, they have a limited understanding of the candidates and their issues, which makes prognostication difficult, especially for those of us who are highly entrenched in matters of local interest and who are, frankly, pretty biased.

Also, there's the matter of how local elections are impacted by state and national races. With the decline in Republican popularity over the last year, what impact will that have on the local races? In my uninformed voting days, I would go down the list checking everyone with a "D" next to their name? How many voters will do that this year?

Without any local public polling data, it's tough to read these elections. But let's try anyway.

Here's a hasty, poorly-thought-out analysis of the various council races.

District 1: Courtney Watson wins comfortably (10 points). As Chris Merdon is wont to point out, the district still leans Democratic, and Watson, with several years experience on the Board of Education, a well-known family and a moderate stance on most issues is poised to be the first Democrat to represent the county's northeastern section in 16 years. In a county where education is the most important issue for most voters, a former board chair who served without controversy in a non-controversial time is almost impossible to beat.

District 2: Calvin Ball, without question (15 - 20 points). Despite not gaining the endorsement of a couple newspapers, there is no way I'm giving this district, the most Democratic in the county, to a Republican. That's just how we roll.

District 3: Toss up. This is the only race in which I'm not confident in picking a winner. Jen Terrasa and Donna Thewes are both qualified, active and fairly well-known in their respective communities. In Terrasa's favor is the fact that she lives in and served on the village board for Kings Contrivance, which is most likely the swing area in this District (with Owen Brown being predominately Democratic and Savage/North Laurel predominantly Republican). In Thewes' favor are the facts that she's edged herself to the middle and she's, apparently, been everywhere during her campaign. I'm told there wasn't an event during the last six months that she didn't attend. If I have to choose (and I do), I'll fall back on bias and choose Terrasa by 3 points.

District 4: Mary Kay Sigaty, again without question (12 - 15 points). See description for District 2 and also Courtney Watson (BOE experience). Although not as solidly Democratic, it still leans far enough to the left that any Republican who wants to win is going to have to be a stellar candidate. And while I've been surprised by Tom D'Asto's pluckiness and commitment, I don't think he's done enough to pull this one out. He has gone after the Town Center Master Plan, playing up fears of massive city-fication -- which was a wise move -- but I think Sigaty's insulated enough from the process that many voters who view this as the main issue won't be swayed.

District 5: Greg Fox, hands down (15 - 20 points). See Districts 2 and 4 for explanation. As refreshing as it would be to see Don Dunn as a councilman, the hill he must climb is just too tall.

So, what do you think? Am I being blatantly partisan, or have I managed to sufficiently suppress my bias and provide a reasoned analysis?

How about we turn this into a contest? Post your predictions (with a margin of victory) in the comments and whoever gets the most right gets a prize of no financial value and to be determined at a later date. (Feel free to post prize ideas, too.)

I'll have a County Executive analysis later this week, but for the sake of the contest, please include your predictions here (or not).

Please be sure to use an identifier. Note that you don't have to divulge any personal information (and I won't divulge any, either). Just click the button that says "Other" and fill in a random name of your choosing.