Power to the people...

I’ve been sitting on this for a couple of days, unsure of exactly what I wanted to say. Although I’m still conflicted, I decided to share my thoughts in all their contradictory glory.

First, what I am sure of. The development of downtown Columbia is as important, if not more so, to the success of our community than the development of the rest of Columbia. Given the (almost) tabula rasa and tremendous scale of the Next American City, Jim Rouse and his company had room to make mistakes, which, in the long run, would not adversely impact to any meaningful degree the success of their project. I don’t think it’s too early to say Columbia is a success as a city, albeit one with a few warts. (But, which don't have at least some?)

The situation is completely different for Town Center. Instead of proposing a massive development in a largely unpopulated area, we are faced with a massive development in the middle of the second largest city in Maryland. Unlike the city itself, there is almost no room for error in Town Center. We’ll get pretty much one chance to do it right, but that one chance is not hanging in the balance now. That one chance is not a master plan that takes a few months to develop. Our one chance to get it right is not in the plan itself but in the 30 or more years of development we have before us. Yes, the plan will guide us, but it will not - despite our best intentions - control unpredictable decades of development. It simply cannot.

Which brings me to the current Charrette opposition, which has coalesced recently under the leadership of Delegate Liz Bobo into “Citizens For Sensible, Values-Based Downtown Development in Columbia.” (And now for the cynical Hayduke: Just in case you didn’t know who’s running this show, check out the URL and picture on the top right of the website. I don’t want to go too far into the motivations of someone else, but is it really necessary -- other than for political gain -- to feature oneself so prominently in an endeavor that is ostensibly about “the citizens”? I mean, www.columbiadowntown.org is an available URL [direct link broken, but you can search for it -- or trust me]. Why not just use that?)

It’s hard to get a feel for the actual stances of those railing against the Charrette. I think it’s a pretty wide spectrum including No Growthers, NIMBYs, Some Growthers, Conspiracy Theorists (DPZ is controlled by General Growth), General Rabble Rousers, and (predominately, I would guess) More Informationists. Despite the widely disparate views of the coalition, the “official” line of CFSVBDDC seems to be pretty well captured by the statement on a petition it is asking members to circulate:

We the undersigned concerned citizens request:
that specific, hard data relating to housing, schools, traffic, roads, water and sewer, environment, fiscal responsibility, as well as phasing and monitoring of the proposed development be studied and made available to the public BEFORE the Draft Master Plan for Downtown Columbia is presented to the Planning Board and the County Council.

(Emphasis in original.)

So what’s wrong with wanting “hard” data? Nothing, except for the fact that much of this information doesn’t exist, and that which does, is not really “hard” but merely projections and guesstimates.

Quite simply, by seeking to micromanage the future of our town, we are asking too much of the plan and the planning process. Instead of creating something that will accommodate the inevitable changes of the next 30 years, many are seeking a plan based on today’s reality, a reality that, come tomorrow, is useless. There are some things we can control and some things we can’t, and when confronted with things out of our power, it’s best to adapt, lest we waste time and energy fighting the wrong battles.

Like the plan that created this great city, the plan that creates a great downtown needs to be responsive to the needs of the community and (yes, even) the market, needs that will inevitably change in just a few years, let alone 30. Moreover, the plan must be able to adapt to a rapidly changing world, as forces outside our control (regional growth, transporation, energy use, etc.) will have major impacts on our lives and the direction of Town Center. So, instead of asking for all the details up front, it seems to me the best approach is to create a framework for development that includes citizen and public oversight throughout the process, rather than trying to cram in all of this oversight now. After all, the only thing that we can say with any real certainty is that our future is uncertain, and exactly what, where, when, how, and why changes occur will remain beyond our understanding.

All that said, I'm as much for sensible, values-based development as anyone. Creating a plan based on this principle, however, does not exclude it from being adaptable, as well.

Web surfing...

If you've got some time to kill on the internet, here are a few websites you should visit.

First is DataPlace. Based on Census and other data, this site allows you to look up all kinds of statistics and information about your community. You can make maps, tables, charts, and comparisons across communities. If you're a geek for this stuff (like me), it's sure to be worth a click.

The other site is called PlanNYC. Though, as the name suggests, it's about New York City, the concept behind the site is really great. It is meant to serve as a one-stop shop for specific information about development, construction, and other planning activities occurring in your neighborhood. Included are news stories, links to public information and reports, and a calendar to keep you up to date on the public meetings dealing with your community. Something like this would be a tremendously valuable resource for Howard County (or any county for that matter). From what I hear, it was built using Open Source code, which means free! If there are any enterprising web developers out there interested in helping with such a project in Howard County, send me an email.

The debate that just won't die...

There are two stories dealing with The Plaza building -- the 22-story condo tower recently approved by the Planning Board -- in today's Flier. Here's the first one.

A group of Columbia residents is challenging the approval of a 22-story high-rise condominium in downtown Columbia, claiming that the building is out of line with the county's zoning code.

The four-person group, led by former County Council member Lloyd Knowles, filed an appeal Feb. 14 of the Planning Board's Jan. 18 decision to approve the planned 275-foot Plaza Residences.

...The group argues that the zoning for the Plaza property was incorrectly changed in 2002 to allow additional residential units. The 160-unit Plaza Residences would exceed the threshold of residential-units-to-acreage set in the unique New Town zoning code that governs development in Columbia, Knowles said.

Before sending a site development proposal to the Planning Board for its approval, county planners conduct a review of the proposal and, in doing so, normally set criteria that allow the Board to determine a building's height, Knowles said.

In the case of the Plaza, however, the Planning Board misinterpreted the plan and therefore incorrectly believed that it had no authority to limit the building's height.

Well that is certainly interesting. If it turns out that the Planning Board did have the power to set a height limit, we may be in for a very messy situation. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. As for exceeding the residential-units-to-acreage ratio, that sounds like a dead end argument to me, given the fact that I know General Growth still has a healthy allotment of residential units in Columbia. Regardless, their case may have some merit.

So, what do others have to say about this appeal?

Marsha McLaughlin, the director of Howard County's Department of Planning and Zoning, could not be reached for comment.

...Tammy CitaraManis, chairwoman of the county Planning Board could not be reached for comment.

Anthony Albanese, division president of WCI Communities Inc., which is building the condominium complex, could not be reached for comment.

Allrighty then.

On the other hand, an argument that doesn't have merit, apparently, is the complaint that the Howard County Fire Department would have difficulty responding to a fire or other emergency at The Plaza.

Firefighters could handle a blaze at a 22-story high-rise condominium planned for downtown Columbia, despite concerns from residents that its size would overtax the county's safety and rescue resources, according to Howard County's deputy fire chief.

The 275-foot building - which would be the tallest in Howard County - likely would prove less of a fire hazard than some older Columbia buildings because it is slated to contain a sprinkler system, emergency lighting and fire alarms that other buildings might lack, deputy fire chief Kevin Simmons said.

Well, that settles that, right? The deputy fire chief, presumably acting under the orders of the actual fire chief, should know better than pretty much everyone -- certainly non-fire fighting types -- whether his men can meet the challenges posed by the building. Apparently, not.

Del. Elizabeth Bobo, a Columbia Democrat, said she grew concerned when the fire department issued a "no comment" in its review of the building's site development plan.

...The fire department's "no comment" response seemed "careless" and "risky," said Bobo, who blames the county Planning and Zoning Department for not requiring fire officials to draw up a plan for fire safety at the building.

...Fire officials said Bobo has misconstrued the "no comment."

Such a response does not mean that the department is refusing to address a site development plan, but that officials have reviewed the plan and found that the building meets standards set in the fire prevention code, Simmons said.

Bobo countered this week that the Plaza Residences is not a routine project and therefore requires more than a routine response from the county.

"Is it routine to build a building that is twice as tall as any building in Howard County?" Bobo asked. "It's a very cavalier, careless response. I do know there are different methods for fighting a fire in a 275-foot building than a 175-foot building."

Simmons said that a high-rise such as the Plaza would require a substantial number of firefighters to help evacuate its residents compared to that needed to evacuate a smaller complex. But the Plaza's planned sprinklers and other safety features would help control a fire there, he said.

Smaller buildings in Columbia that contain no sprinklers pose a potentially greater fire risk than the Plaza, he added.

"The Plaza, if it is built to the current building code, would be less hazardous than some of the high-rises we have in the county that have no sprinkler protection," Simmons said. "Sprinklers have such an advantage in controlling or putting out a fire."

(Sorry for the long excerpt.)

While I appreciate Bobo's concern for the yet unknown residents of the Plaza, I take issue with her calling the Fire Department "careless" and "cavalier." I don't know why one would think fire officials wouldn't give an honest, unbiased review of the plan. What do they have to gain? A tragedy and liability? I don't, however, want to single Bobo out on this, because I think this type of attitude has become pervasive in our society and I think it's doing real harm. And I blame the internet.

In this age of information, everyone's an expert on everything. All it takes is a quick trip to Google or Wikipedia and suddenly we can speak fluently at cocktail parties (do people still have cocktail parties?) about everything from fire fighting tactics to global warming to stem cell research. Meanwhile, the real experts -- those who have devoted their lives to these topics -- are questioned, discredited, or ignored by those more interested in using information for "other" reasons. The assault on science by politicians, particularly our current federal administration, is the most troubling and obvious example of this.

Shifting the focus back to our community, we've got the Charrette, which was designed to include all citizens, regardless of their understanding of urban planning principles. By tasking professional planners with the job of interpreting and distilling the visions of the regular people, we could balance the needs, desires, and hopes of citizens with the realities of developing a town center over 30 years. The experts, in other words, serve as translators, turning the language of people into a workable plan.

The problem is, once we've destroyed the credibility of the experts, we've lost their expertise, or at least their expertise has lost its validity. We should certainly keep an eye on them and the work they produce and criticize it when necessary, but we shouldn't try to do their job for them. After all, we pay them for this, right? What's more, nothing they do is final; the council -- our source for accountability -- has the final say, and if they vote for something entirely out of step with the will of the people, well, they'll lose their jobs. Because the one thing we're all truly experts in is determining the outcome of elections.

When ideologies collide...

Two things that were once hallmarks of the conservative mind are lower taxes and smaller, decentralized government (that is, keeping public power in the hands of the public, and not some large bureaucracy). What happens when these ideals conflict?

For the second straight year, Howard County's state lawmakers have killed a bill aimed at reducing the county's income tax rate and one offering a property tax credit to senior citizens.

In a meeting Feb. 15, Howard County's delegation to the General Assembly voted to kill the bills, introduced by Del. Gail Bates, a Republican from Glenelg.

The first bill proposed reducing Howard County's income tax rate to 3 percent from 3.2 percent. While saying they sympathize and support efforts to reduce taxes, several members of the delegation who opposed the bill said cutting county taxes is the responsibility of county officials.

Bates' second bill would have required Howard County to grant property tax credits of between 30 percent and 50 percent on real estate owned by residents age 65 and older.

Bates has the lowering taxes part down, but she is a little off by suggesting that it is the role of state government to do this. Local taxes should be the domain of local governments, not a state legislature, which should be more concerned with, you know, state issues. Just because one doesn't agree with the entirely legal decisions of local elected officials doesn't mean one should usurp their power in the name of ideology. Thankfully, I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Also, those same elected officials with whom Bates disagrees have already approved a tax deferral program for seniors and are considering some type of general tax reduction (either property or income). But in the world of politics, I guess, it's all about who does it first.

More on the Manor...

Following up on yesterday's article, the Washington Post has a story today about a package being put together by state officials to induce the Carroll family to preserve Doughoregan Manor. The short story is, it's going to cost millions. No surprises there.

The effort to come up with a package of incentives has drawn officials with land conservation and historic preservation programs in the state departments of natural resources, agriculture, planning and general services.

"It is the goal of the state to preserve that land -- as much as [the Carrolls] will agree to," Chuck Gates, a spokesman for the Department of Natural Resources, said this week. "That will be up to them."

Administrators from those departments and a few county officials, including (Council Chairman Chris) Merdon and County Council member Charles C. Feaga (R-West County), visited Doughoregan last week on a bus tour, stopping at the small chapel adjoining one wing of the manor house.

I am glad to see the aggressive stance the state is taking. Although I would still like to see a development rights transfer program enacted, ultimately what's most important is keeping development out of the estate -- even if the public isn't allowed access.

What's funny about the story, however, is this:

The Doughoregan visit was criticized by state Republican lawmakers who weren't invited. State Sen. Allan H. Kittleman (R-Howard), whose district includes Doughoregan, said he learned of the meeting from a local preservationist.

"All of us should know what's going on out there," said Kittleman, who added that his office is receiving e-mails from residents asking him to support the manor's preservation. "We certainly should be included in the conversation."

Dels. Warren E. Miller and Gail H. Bates, Howard Republicans who represent the district, said they were especially unhappy with state officials about being excluded from the meeting.

"Here's a major activity in our legislative district, and nobody bothered to call," said Miller, noting that an effort to preserve the entire estate will require "extraordinary coordination" among government agencies.

"We do the state budget. We work with state agencies. We do have a role," said Bates, who is on the House Appropriations Committee.

Merdon, who contacted the governor's office about organizing the meeting, said Carroll family members told him they wished to invite the administrators of state programs, and "we followed that request."

I know how it feels when your friends do something cool and leave you out: not good; not good at all.

It should be noted that this trip was organized by Merdon and officials from the office of Bobby Guv, all Republicans. And the complaints over being left out are coming from an entirely Republican group of legislators. Are there rifts in the party of Lincoln? Probably not, but it's still fun to see them get mad at each other.

And, yes, I would say the same if Democrats were involved.

Recovering from The Storm of the Century...

Or at least The Storm of 2006.

Anyway, the Flier has a story today just chock full of stuff we already know. To wit: we got a lot of snow on Sunday, which was fortunate because people don't usually work on Sundays; the county plow team did a great job clearing the roads before Monday, which was fortunate because people usually work on Mondays; kids got a snow day even though they didn't really need it; and trees came down and people lost power, but everything is back to normal.

As an added bonus, the story also includes something we didn't know. To wit:

The last time the Weather Service recorded a comparable snowfall in Howard County was in January, 1996, when Clarksville recorded 23 inches, (National Weather Service Spokesman John) Darnley said.

Hmmm...

Although I wasn't actually in the state when it happened, I seem to recall a rather large storm occurring almost exactly three years ago. You see, it's not hard for me to remember because I was stranded in a place I didn't want to be for three extra days and came home to my car buried under more than two feet of snow. But somehow the NWS doesn't see this as "comparable" to our last storm -- another reason to privatize the agency.

Short on time now...

But rest assured, readers, I'll have more to say about this.

Howard County residents sitting in traffic jams and eyeing new homes might believe that development is running rampant, but the facts say otherwise, according to Marsha S. McLaughlin, the planning director.

"We think development is actually pretty well-phased. It is a challenge to convey that to citizens," McLaughlin told County Council members this week - including council Chairman Christopher J. Merdon, an Ellicott City Republican, and west Columbia Democrat Ken Ulman, both candidates for county executive.

The pace of residential growth has dropped sharply while commercial construction is booming, McLaughlin said, noting figures in the county's 14th annual Development Monitoring System Report, which tracks development since the adoption of the Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance, known as APFO. The latest report covers Oct. 1, 2004, to Sept. 30, 2005.

Strange neighbors...

Pre-construction work is underway for a new big box shopping center at Rt. 175 and I-95. Dubbed Gateway Overlook, the development will have something heretofore unseen in such places: residents.

The 123-acre project, Gateway Overlook, will include 66 residential units and at least two so-called big-box stores that will anchor the commercial component and serve as magnets, or customer draws, for the remaining retailers.

Howard County government sources said they believe the two anchors will be Costco Wholesale Corp. and Lowe's Cos. Inc. There also is speculation that Trader Joe's, a specialty grocery chain, will locate at the site. Gateway Overlook is being developed by Chicago-based General Growth Properties Inc., which acquired the property as part of its $12.6 billion acquisition of the Rouse Co. 15 months ago.

Dennis W. Miller, vice president and general manager of Columbia for the developer, declined to say if Costco and Lowe's have committed to the project.

"We're still negotiating with several tenants," he said. But Miller acknowledged that the giant retailers are "two users we are talking with."

It will be interesting to see how they make residences and big box stores compatible. All we're told in the story is that the residences will be attached and not single family homes.

Also interesting is the fact that GGP is being tight-lipped about Lowe's, especially considering that the home improvement warehouse was mentioned by the Post in a story about this development written in October. As I said back then, it seems strange to have a Lowe's (and apparently a Costco) within a mile or so of a Home Depot and BJ's.

While I'm ambivalent about this project in general, I was happy to see this:

Trader Joe's - or TJ's as it commonly referred to - also is the subject of speculation. One county official declared the chain would open at Gateway Overlook, but then hedged.

"I was told by someone in the commercial-retail industry that Trader Joe's has a deal to go into the new center," said County Councilman Ken Ulman.

Ulman said he asked whether the agreement is firm. "And I was told, 'Yes, it's a done deal.'"

BusinessWeek reported that TJ's strategy of offering "eclectic and upscale foodstuffs for the wine and cheese set at down to earth prices" has proved "phenomenally lucrative."

A Trader Joe's would certainly be a welcome addition to my regular shopping agenda, even if I wouldn't necessarily consider myself a member of the "wine and cheese set." Well, unless by wine you mean Mad Dog 20/20 and by cheese you mean individually wrapped slices of American.

WaPo on Doughoregan

After The Sun broke the news of the Doughoregan development situation back in January, the Post has gotten it's act together and written a long story about the Manor and its owners. After reading a quick read, I didn't see anything new to report, although there is a nice picture accompanying the piece.

V-Day Round Up...

I only have time for a few quick hits today…

First, this is pathetic: 


The millions of dollars spent to move the weekend's record snowfall pushed several area government storm budgets into the red, but Sunday's snow had its benefits.

"

A weekend storm is wholly positive in terms of clearing it, but it's absolutely more expensive because it's all overtime," said State Highway Administration spokesman David Buck.

The state spent $8 million to $10 million on the storm, Buck said, enough to put Maryland's $21 million annual snow-clearing budget well into the red. Buck said the state had spent its full storm budget before this latest snow, largely on snowfalls in Western Maryland.



"We had 25 storms in Western Maryland, with 90 inches of snow," he said.



The fiscal story was similar for local governments, though elected officials are often less worried about the money than about public safety and not annoying voters in an election year.

…Governments often deliberately underfund storm accounts, knowing that surplus money can be added later if needed.



Howard County budgeted $500,000 for winter storms and was $200,000 in the hole before the latest storm hit. Weekend snow clearance will cost about $200,000 more, said James M. Irvin, the county's public works chief.

What is gained by intentionally underestimating the budgetary impact of snow removal? It is one thing to conservatively estimate the cost of this essential government function. But the fact that our plowing budget was already busted before this most recent storm hit is absurd. Before Saturday, we had two minor snowstorms that required almost no plowing. How can you run out of money dealing with those two minor inconveniences?

Look, I know there is still money available to pay the plow drivers - who, by the way, did an excellent job over the weekend - but why do we have to try and hide the real costs of snow removal in our budgets? It just seems silly and makes our government look stupid to boot.

Today’s second item comes to us from Howard County Blog #2 (henceforth, HCB2), where concerns over parking in Town Center were discussed recently.

Will they build enough parking garage spaces to replace the existing parking and handle the increase in cars resulting from the new buildings? The parking plan for the recently approved 22 story building raises grave concerns that enough parking will be built. The 22 story building will only have 1.5 parking spaces per residential unit and about have of these spaces will be tandem parking spaces where cars park behind each other blocking each other in.

Actually, the approved plan for the Plaza calls for 288 parking spaces, or 1.8 per residence, 40 more than HCB2 alludes to. I know it sounds like I’m nitpicking, but I have real concerns about such factual carelessness. Between ideologues, demagogues, developers, and a questionable Planning Department, we have enough misinformation running through our community. If HCB2 really wants to be a community resource on the Charrette and Town Center Master Plan, propagating inaccurate information for the sake of advocacy isn’t going to help. But, to each his own, I guess.

Back to the post…

If the county is approving parking plans like this one for the 22 story building it significantly undermines trust that they will make sure the rest of the plan will have enough parking. And even if they build enough garage spaces will the garages be paid parking? And if the parking around the mall is paid won’t people go shop at Arundel Mills instead? And if people shop at Arundel Mills instead what will that do to the economic vitality of downtown Columbia?

I’d like to propose that we forget about the Plaza entirely. The building, its plans, and its approval represent the final development in the old paradigm - the pre-Charrette Town Center. The Planning Board approved the plans for this monstrosity based on zoning that, in a few months, will be outdated and on an approval system that, hopefully in a few more months, will also fall by the wayside. It was unfortunate that the Plaza wasn’t a part of the Charrette and that it may not be aligned with some people’s vision for Columbia, but it’s done and we won’t ever have to deal with a situation like it again, meaning many of the fears over parking may be unfounded.

Even with a new plan and hopefully a new development process, citizens must remain engaged. We have to first ensure the new zoning requires an appropriate level of parking, and as the plan becomes reality, it’s also our job to ensure that the guidelines are followed, that there is sufficient parking. We don’t have to trust them; we only have to trust ourselves to keep an eye on this stuff.

As for fears over paid parking, that’s something that will never keep me awake at night. If we build a Town Center that people really want to come to, they’ll pay to park here (I should note that I think paid parking is many, many decades away, and even then, not likely, especially considering General Growth’s interest in keeping mall shoppers happy). And, regardless of the parking situation, I don’t think you can compare downtown Columbia with Arundel Mills in any reasonable sense; that is, I don’t think shoppers would really engage in that much substitution for one over the other.

Arundel Mills is lame and everyone knows it. Parking is always a nightmare, it’s more crowded than Kings Dominion, and the stores aren’t necessarily the types of establishments frequented by affluent Howard Countians. On top of all that, there is that farce of a restaurant Medieval Times.

The third item for today deals with how much I’ve grown to dislike The Sun over the last few hours. Here’s my message to the editors:

Dear Sun Editors,

I usually check your website during my lunch hour to catch up on what has happened since my morning perusal of your pages. However, not having learned my lesson yesterday, I clicked onto your site today and found that which annoyed me greatly only 24 hours ago - namely, the results of various, yet-to-be-aired Olympic events. You see, I watch sports mainly for the suspense and unpredictability of human competition, and the Olympics are no different, even though I cannot watch them “live.” Your glaring midday headlines, however, ruin the experience for me entirely. I would recommend that instead of publishing the results in 42-point font on your main page, you place a prominent link to the results with a “spoiler alert” displayed alongside. This way you could still convey the news for those who are impatient without destroying the once-every-four-years suspense that the rest of us enjoy.

Until you see fit to comply with my request, I will not speak favorably of your publication on my weblog.

Thank you,

Hayduke

The Baltimore Sun is not a very good newspaper.

(Just letting them know I’m serious.)

Still waiting...

On a snowfall map from the National Weather Service so I can write the full Weatherman accountability post for our recent storm. I'll have it soon enough, but as I said in my last post, our local forecasters might not want to read what I have to write.

On an unrelated note, I've been told that tomorrow is a "computer-free" day, but I usually have a few minutes after work (before Abbzug comes home) to write. In case I don't, however, I wanted to link to Howard County Blog #2's announcement about the upcoming public meeting focused on the Town Center Master Plan. The meeting is on February 27 at the Spear Center (in the General Growth building). I also have something to say about this post at HBC2, but that may have to wait until Wednesday.

Getting some R-E-S-P-E-C-T...

Howard County Blog sent me the link to this story in the Business Monthly.

Internet blogging has grown as a phenomenon in almost every field, particularly politics, and so it should come as no surprise that there are several active blogs on Howard County politics and government.

Until I ran across them recently, I had thought about having my own blog connected to bizmonthly.com, but had pretty much rejected the idea. Too much time, too much trouble. Despite my deep and long interest in politics, I'm just not enough of political junkie to write about it every day or even every couple of days, especially since I would wind up using some of my best observations on the blog long before they had a chance of making it into the newspaper. For the moment and foreseeable future, the physical newspaper is the main product and produces all the revenues. Reading these blogs, which are actually fairly good, only confirmed the reasons I had abandoned the idea. These guys (I think all but one are males) are just obsessed with Howard County.

Obsessed? I wouldn't go so far as to say I'm "obsessed" with Howard County, although when I asked Abbzug, she confirmed that I am in fact "obsessed." It's a problem I'm working on. Back to the ego-building...

They are particularly good at following, in excruciating detail, what's going in the plans for downtown Columbia, an area where The Business Monthly staff has neither the manpower or time to stay on top of every twist and turn. They've also been following the discussions about what will happen to Doughregan Manor, the ancestral estate of Charles Carroll, the only Catholic and longest surviving signer of the Declaration of Independence. He once owned 16,000 acres and had a huge hand in the history of Howard County and the country.

Here's a brief rundown of the current bloggers. One beef I have about many blogs is their anonymity, especially when it comes to making critical or even scurrilous remarks about other people, but I haven't found that to be the case so far with the Howard County blogs, even the no-name sites.

Hey, what's wrong with anonymity? In a sense, aren't we all anonymous -- another non-distinct face on the street, another nameless driver piloting 2ooo pounds of glass and steel, another body ensconced in a plywood fortress?

Sorry, sometimes I can't help it. As much as I'd like the fame and fortune that come with being a local blogger, I think I'll stick with the editorial freedom that anonymity provides. If I start to become overly critical or make scurrilous remarks, feel free to reprimand me accordingly in the comments section.

By the way, thanks to writer Len Lazarick for mentioning the burgeoning Howard County blogosphere.

Another "rogue" candidate...

So much for the Howard County Republicans having their house in order. (Background: A couple of weeks ago the Flier wrote two stories, one for each party. Basically, the Democrats appeared to be in disarray, while the GOP seemed to have everything in order, at least in terms of who was running for what.)

Well, on the heels of police chief Wayne Livesay's announcement to run for the District 5 council seat as a Republican comes a new Republican challenger in District 9A, Melissa Ridgely Covolesky. Covolesky will run against incumbent delegates Warren Miller and Gail Bates (there are two seats in this district). That makes two races where Republicans are strongly favored that will now include primaries. Not really the cohesiveness one would expect from a well-oiled (political) machine.

David Wissing's keeping quiet on this development, while Howard County Blog #1 offers an analysis of her website. After touring the site, my favorite things about the new candidate are her birthday (one day away from mine!) and choice in dogs (at least the first one). The substantive portions of the website are blank, giving me free reign to comment on the more personal aspects of the candidate.

None of this is to say the Democrats have put their ducks in a row. Rather, it is meant to be cautionary message to all political pundits out there: Though it's never to early start speculating, don't expect to be right 10 months before an election.

And now it's time...

To shovel out my car. New posts below...

Gaining wider attention...

Efforts to preserve Doughoregan Manor in Ellicott City are expanding. More public agencies are getting involved, and so is, apparently, the Governor. Several notable folks discussed the matter last week before taking a tour of (some of) the grounds.

State financial help was among the topics on the table Thursday, when more than a dozen people met in a Columbia legal office and later toured the property by bus.

The group included state officials, two County Council members and Marsha S. McLaughlin, the county planning director. They were joined by College of William and Mary historian Ronald Hoffman and several Carroll family members, as well as Carroll family friend and developer J. Thomas Scrivener, participants said.

The group entered the family chapel on their visit -- but not the manor house, which is named for the family's ancestral 17th-century Irish homeland.

"We wanted state officials to get a sense of the historic significance. It is a magnificent piece of property," said County Council Chairman Christopher J. Merdon, who helped set up the gathering through the office of Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.

Good to see Merdon putting his politics to good use. If it were only Robey dealing with this, I don't think the Governor's office would have been as accommodating. Anyway, back to the story.

Though she was not a participant, Mary Catherine Cochran, president of Preservation Howard County, said she was cheered by word that the tour took place.

"My understanding is that the governor is interested, and they are looking at a 100 percent [preservation] solution, which is great news," she said.

That's a welcome sign. If this becomes an issue that the state (and it's financial resources) gets behind, a solution ($$$$$$$$$) probably won't be that hard to find.

I'm glad to see that purchasing development rights came up in the discussion. But I'm not too pleased with the continued emphasis on the use of public money to buy these rights.

One proposal would involve the public purchase of development rights to about 600 acres for up to $24 million, while allowing new homes to be built in a cluster on a separate 200 acres. The Carrolls have zoning that would permit building about 450 homes on their land.

Merdon said the meeting and tour were "the first step in a very long process," but he added that the family members appear interested in the discussion.

The Carrolls stressed, Merdon said, that "they are not asking for any public money," and can develop the land if that's the best way to raise the funds they need. They are also open to state and county efforts to preserve the property, he said.

I just don't understand why we have to rely on public money to accomplish things we think are worthwhile. There is other money out there that will work just fine.

So, I'll ask again, why not make developers who want to build a lot of residential units elsewhere in the county pay to have the right to develop these units by purchasing development rights from property owners that have some that they are not particularly interested in using? Oh, right, because the developers mentioned above say it's a non-starter, at least according to their spokespersons, er, county officials. Well, what if we say residential in Town Center is a non-starter for us, those supposedly dictating the downtown master plan? What then?

Talking traffic...

Wouldn't it be nice if, instead of having to wait for traffic and weather on the 8's, you could just call a phone number to see what's causing the back-up on the road you're on and whether your alternate routes are also snarled. Well, you can...just not in Maryland.

Assigned in 2000 by the Federal Communications Commission, the expectation was that motorists would call 511 to receive - and perhaps provide - more route-specific information than most radio stations' 30-second traffic reports offer, and they wouldn't have to wait every 10 minutes or so to hear it.

However, State Highway Administration spokesman David Buck noted that there are several studies under way: one in Northern Virginia for the national capital region 511, one for a Maryland statewide 511 and one for a Baltimore region 511. Buck cautioned, however, that implementing 511 in Maryland would require additional funding that is not under consideration. For 511 to happen, Buck said, "It is likely we will look at the potential of teaming up with private industry partners."

But the challenges extend beyond funding issues, Buck said. "The national and local challenge with 511 is the real-time database that an interactive voice recording system must link to for the system to provide useful info," he said. The database must include not only roadway information, but also mass transportation and airport information, involving a huge data collection and data fusion effort across several jurisdictions and agencies.

So there are challenges? So what? Doesn't Maryland have some of the worst traffic in the country? Aren't we a pretty connected (and wealthy) state? Yes, we've got a great traffic monitoring website, but what good is that when you're driving?

Anyway, if we already collect all this traffic data for the web and disseminate to local broadcasters, shouldn't we have the same information available to motorists via cell phone? They are, after all, the ones actually stuck in the traffic.

Outsider still looking in...

Before deciding to quit your day job for a career in politics, make sure you actually meet the requirements for the position you've set your sights on. Exhibit A of how not to do it, recently-resigned state official Tom Snyder of Ellicott City.

Although he is a registered Republican, he said he wanted to run a slow-growth campaign for county executive as an independent, which requires collecting 1 percent of registered voters' signatures on petitions, about 1,600 names.

That would be no problem, Snyder said. But he had forgotten that Howard County executives are required by law to be county residents for at least five years. Snyder and his wife, Elizabeth, bought their house in April 2003, though he said he had moved to Howard in 2001.

After determining that he does not meet the residency requirement, Snyder decided to give up his campaign before it began.

Whoops. I'll admit to being a little upset that he's not running. The way I see it, the more candidates the better (more for me to write about).

Of course, Snyder's qualifications were in doubt long before the Sun bothered to write about it. Howard County Blog #1 had the scoop a few weeks ago. Behold the power of blogs.

Weatherman Accountability: Initial Recap...

Bull's eye...

What can I say other than they were all wrong (at least for Columbia). According to my measuring stick, we've got around 16" in south Columbia, while as of 7:21 am the National Weather Service spotters in Columbia are reporting anywhere from 17" to 21", the highest totals in the state.

I'll have a full recap once NWS posts their handy snowfall total map, but initially it looks like those who predicted the highest totals (Bob Turk at WJZ in Baltimore, Accuweather, and the Weather Channel) will emerge as de facto winners. The biggest loser: Norm Lewis at WMAR in Baltimore who said "I just can't buy this being a big winter storm" to go along with his prediction of 2" - 4". Nice try, Norm.

I may also include NWS in the winners pool for upping its forecast to 8" - 14" Friday night, a change I mentioned in yesterday's post. NWS even stuck by this prediction yesterday, when the snow wasn't sticking and many forecasters were lowering totals--notably Bob Ryan at WRC in Washington.

Full report coming soon...

The Perfect Storm...

...of Distractions.

It's been a slow news week here in the land of Howard. Couple that with the Terps game against the hated Dookies, the Olympics starting in earnest, and the impending snowstorm, and today becomes a day of distractions meant to keep me from blogging about anything important. Which is fine with me.

I don't want to shift the focus of this blog to weather only, but when we're looking down the barrel of what will be the biggest storm in three years, it's hard for a weather nerd like myself to want to write about anything else. I hope tomorrow's Sun brings news worthy of comment, but for today, all I've got is the set up for our second installment of Weatherman Accountability.

For those of you who don't know about this little gimmick of mine, here's some background from the first storm in December. However, the short answer is that, after complaining for years about the inaccuracy of our local weather forecasters, I've decided to see how good (or bad) they really are at predicting snowfall. The only other measurable storm we had this year was in early December, and Topper Shutt and his WUSA team came the closest to getting it right.

I spent last night capturing the forecasts of all our local weathermen, as well as those of the national outlets. To keep things fair, I am using forecasts given between 11 pm and midnight last night. Since that time, some have changed their totals, but with flakes already falling, the updated forecasts won't count. (I figure the 11 pm news the night before is the last time most people will check the weather until the storm is underway.)

So, here's the run down of forecasts:

Baltimore Stations

• WMAR-Channel 2: To quote meteorologist Norm Lewis: "I just can't buy this being a big winter storm." "Minor snow for the Baltimore area." Will Norm have to eat his words? Maybe. His prediction: 2" - 4" for I-95 and West/North; 3" - 6" I-95 South/East. "Even these may have to be pushed down."
  
• WBAL-Channel 11: 4" - 8" Balt/Wash Corridor and West/North; 8" - 12" Annapolis/St. Mary's and South/East.
• WJZ-Channel 13: 6" - 10" for the whole area.
• WBFF-Channel 45 (or 5 on Comcast): 4" - 8" I-95 and West/North; 6" - 9" for South/East I-95.

Washington Stations

• WRC-Channel 4: Said Bob Ryan: "I've very confident this will be the biggest storm in 3 years." 5" - 9" DC/Balt/I-95 and West/North. 6" - 12" South/East of cities.
• WTTG-Channel 5 (or 75 on Comcast): 3" - 5" I-95 and West/North. 6" - 10" South/East of cities.
  
• WJLA-Channel 7: 4" - 8" I-95 and West/North; 6" - 10" South/East of cities.
• WUSA-Channel 9: 4" - 8" I-95 and West/North; 6" - 12" South/East of cities.

National Outlets:

• National Weather Service: 4" - 8" for our area.
• Accuweather: 7.4" for Columbia (Do they really need to predict snowfall to a tenth of an inch?). 6" - 12" for whole area.
  
• Weather Channel: 6" - 12" for whole area.

As you can see, consensus last night was pretty much around the 4" - 8" for Howard County. Well, this morning, presumably backed by new model guidance, the National Weather Service upped the totals for Columbia to 8" - 14". As I said, however, it's too late in the game for them to change their calls, but this new prediction at least bears mentioning to give you a sense of what might be happening.

Though I won't be live-blogging the snowstorm -- too many other distractions -- the super weather-nerdy website Capital Weather is a great place to go if you want real time updates from a bunch of people even more obsessed with the weather than myself. The site is run by several well-trained weather buffs (read: some work in weather, most have college degrees in it) who produce their own forecasts based on the same National Weather Service models used by every other forecaster. Their forecast from last night: 5" - 8" for most of the area, with 8"+ for Annapolis and east. They plan to issue an update today at 11 am.

In addition to my usual excitement over snow, I've got a financial interest in this storm. A friend of mine sent me the "Vegas" over/under for the storm -- 3.5" for Columbia. I've got $10 on the over.

Well, with the set up out of the way, it's time to sit back, relax, watch the Terps win, watch the flakes fall, and wait to see what tomorrow brings (hopefully a foot of snow and several bloggerific news stories).

Weatherman Accountability: Back on...

It's looking more and more like some type of winter weather will be upon us Saturday. As always, I'll be tracking the local forecasters as they struggle in vain to predict when and how much of the frozen stuff falls.

On a related note, commercial weather service Accuweather stinks. As bad as our local guys are at pumping up storms to get the attention of local viewers, Accuweather's much, much, much worse; they've been throwing out forecasts for this approaching storm with reckless abandon, at one time calling for up to a foot of snow for central Maryland. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is playing it close to the vest until they, you know, actually have some confidence in the models.

Of course, Accuweather is the company that's been throwing money at the Worst Senator in America, Rick Santorum, to get him to silence the National Weather Service. It seems the NWS, which provides weather data and model guidance to all the commercial forecasters, is stepping on the toes of the free market by providing forecasts on its website. Instead of making its work public, Accuweather and the puppet Senator want NWS to continue to compile data, run models, and generate forecasts -- as it's doing now -- only instead of releasing this publicly-funded information to everyone, it should only give it to commercial forecasters, who can turn around and make us pay for something we've already paid for. Thanks, jerks.

If NWS was as consistently wrong with its forecasts as Accuweather, there might be a case for privatizing the agency. However, since they're usually right -- especially in instances where human life is in danger -- I think we should just stick with what works.

UPDATE: It is most certainly on.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE DEEP SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO SETUP ACROSS THE
REGION...MOST LIKELY JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS
INCLUDES THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BOTH WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. AT THIS TIME...A SWATH OF SNOWFALL 5 INCHES OR MORE IS
LIKELY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THIS STORM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECAST INFORMATION. IF HEAVY SNOW BECOMES
IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING OR HEAVY SNOW WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED.