Monday, May 15, 2006

Believe at your own peril…


Howard County school officials are breathing a sigh of relief — for now.

After the system experienced rapid enrollment growth in the 1990s, school officials said projections show the numbers leveling off.

…David Drown, manager of school planning, said student enrollment will level off at about 49,000 students in 2012.


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Anonymous said...

Call me skeptical about his 49,000 estimate. The system's own current profile currently shows 47,842 for 2006. So, only 1,158 more students will be added by six years from now?

That's only a 0.6% school population growth for each of the next 6 years. This tiny growth rate estimate is only 1/3 the current overall population growth rate, 1.85% per year. If the school population growth for the next six years instead matches the overall population growth rate for the past five years, the 2012 school population will be 53,400.

Come 2012 we'll see which number is closer to reality.